Getting Hype into Perspective: The Gartner Hype Curve on 3D Printing 2015

In July 2015, Gartner published its annual “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies”.

In the report, Gartner shows that 3D printing has expanded much faster than expected and so for the first time it has produced a version of the Hype Cycle just for 3D Printing.

[The Gartner report can be purchased here.]

For those that haven’t come across it before, the Hype Cycle is essentially a curve which charts the evolution of emerging technologies from emergence to mainstream through five stages it calls:

Technology Trigger (emerging, early days)
Peak of inflated expectations (lots of hype and early interest, possibly sales)
Trough of disillusionment (interest in the technology starts to fall away as reality dawns)
Slope of enlightenment (technology becomes more established or fades away)
Plateau of productivity (successful technologies establish wider adoption)

*(words in brackets are Prototype Projects’ own definitions)

The 3D Printing Hype Cycle Report highlights over 20 separate technology applications or ‘uses’ of 3D printing. It positions each one along the hype curve according in one of the 5 stages according to its current and predicted acceptance or adoption into mainstream industrial processes, education and consumer life.

Of interest to Prototype Projects clients will be the fact that 3D Printing for prototyping is the furthest advanced of all these processes, having just entered the “Plateau of Productivity” phase commonly accepted as mainstream.

In previous blog articles at Prototype Projects, we have consistently drawn the distinction between consumer and industrial 3D printing – the former attracting much media attention and hype, but with little evidence of either affordable price points or satisfactory levels of quality and complexity.

Accordingly, Consumer 3D Printing sits between the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and the “Trough of Disillusionment”, as reality continues to dawn on the costs and capabilities. Furthermore, with its placing on the Hype Cycle, Gartner predicts that Consumer 3D Printing is 5–10 years away from wider adoption phase.

On a wider level, Gartner says that medical applications are currently leading the advancement in 3D Printing. In particular:

Medical products are among the leading and most significant new developments in 3D printing technology
Examples include 3D-printed hip and knee replacements
Other leading examples are hearing aids and dental devices
These medical devices, suggests Gartner, will be mainstream in two to five years.

Prototype Projects specialises in 3D Printing, amongst its many prototyping services. So it is good to see that Gartner’s analysis shows the continuing emergence of 3D Printing bureaus as a major contributor to the overall growth in this field.

This suggests that while there are opportunities for specialist 3D Printing bureaus to cater for the enthusiast home modelling and consumer market, there is still a strong market for manufacturers and design houses to outsource 3D Printing requirement to specialised industrial prototyping bureaus such as Prototype Projects.

It would be remiss of us not to refer to some of the most startling and exciting elements of the report.

And it is R&D bioprinting, i.e. 3D Printing of replacement body parts, that is heading out of the innovation stage for the peak of inflated expectation – but with mainstream adoption still some 5 to 10 years away.

While behind on the curve, 3D Printed hip and knee replacements are developing even more quickly, already among the most common surgical procedures which, combined, form an industry worth an estimated $15 billion.

The prediction for these replacement joint components is that they are just 2 to 5 years away from becoming mainstream, a development which, if it continues to evolve at a similar rate, will revolutionise orthopaedic surgery with promises of improved healing times and function.

For customers of Prototype Projects, we will continue to research, develop and invest in our 3D Printing technologies for prototyping, additive manufacturing and testing.

Whatever your industry or whether you’re a product design specialist, we will always be ready to support your work, your projects and your business.